New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 4/28/2025

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the New York Mets on April 28, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Nationals, currently 13-15 and struggling this season, are up against a Mets team that boasts a strong 19-9 record. Despite their recent form, the Nationals will be looking to turn things around in this pivotal matchup.

In their last outing, the Nationals secured a thrilling comeback win over the Mets and will look to build on that today. Trevor Williams is projected to take the mound for Washington, but he has struggled this season, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.11 ERA. His xFIP of 3.89 suggests he may be due for better luck, but with a low strikeout rate of 18.9%, he faces a tough task against a Mets lineup that has been adept at putting the ball in play.

On the other side, Griffin Canning is set to start for New York. With a solid 3.12 ERA and a 3-1 record, Canning has been effective, though his 3.74 SIERA indicates he might not sustain this level of success. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which could keep the Nationals in the game if their offense can capitalize.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive, especially given the Nationals’ underdog status with a moneyline of +135. The projections suggest that while the Nationals have a high implied team total of 4.29 runs, the Mets are favored with an implied total of 5.21 runs. As both teams look to assert themselves, this game could be crucial for Washington as they seek to reverse their fortunes.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Griffin Canning (42.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 7 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Batters such as Juan Soto with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor Williams who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets projected offense projects as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's slider rate has increased by 5.5% from last season to this one (34.7% to 40.2%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 69% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.61, Washington Nationals 4.57

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

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