New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/25/2025

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the Washington Nationals host the New York Mets in the first game of a critical series for both clubs. The Mets ride a wave of momentum into the matchup after a tight 4-3 victory in their last game, while the Nationals are struggling, having lost 2-1 in their previous contest. Currently, the Nationals sit with an 11-14 record, reflecting a tough season, whereas the Mets boast a commendable 18-7 record, showcasing their strong performance thus far.

Jake Irvin is set to take the mound for the Nationals, sporting a 3.68 ERA this season, though his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate. His last outing on April 20 saw him pitch well, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings. However, the projections indicate he might allow an average of 2.9 earned runs today while giving up around 5.2 hits per game—concerning numbers against a potent Mets lineup.

Kodai Senga counters for New York, and he’s been exceptional this season, posting a stellar 0.79 ERA. In his last start, Senga delivered a masterful performance, throwing 6 shutout innings. His strong numbers position him as a challenging opponent for the Nationals, who rank 21st in MLB in offensive performance and have struggled to generate consistent runs.

Given the standings and the disparity in team performance, the Nationals face an uphill battle; they are currently a notable underdog with a moneyline of +150. Meanwhile, the Mets have an implied team total of 5.05 runs, which reflects their strong offensive capabilities. While the Nationals have some glimmers of hope with their best hitter performing well recently, it may not be enough to overcome the Mets’ pitching and overall team strength in this matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Kodai Senga (36.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 6 GB hitters in Washington's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Alonso has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.6% compared to 41.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kodai Senga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.17, Washington Nationals 4.48

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

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