New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the New York Mets on September 11, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Blue Jays sit at 69-77 this season, positioned below average, while the Mets hold a solid 79-66 record, placing them above average. The Blue Jays recently secured a convincing 6-2 victory over the Mets, showcasing their potential despite their struggles this season.

On the mound, Bowden Francis is projected to start for the Blue Jays, bringing an 8-4 record and a respectable 3.72 ERA this year. However, his 4.38 FIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. In contrast, the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who boasts an impressive 11-5 record and a 3.43 ERA, indicating his effectiveness this season. The advanced stats rank Manaea as the 85th best starting pitcher, while Francis is ranked 137th, highlighting a notable disparity.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 14th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 22nd in home runs. They will need their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to step up, especially after Spencer Horwitz's recent hot streak, where he posted a .556 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Mets' offense ranks 9th overall, driven by Francisco Lindor's strong performance this season.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Blue Jays may have a better chance of winning this matchup than the betting markets indicate, with their odds favoring them slightly despite the recent victory against the Mets. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the potential for a high-scoring affair, given both teams' offensive capabilities.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The Toronto Blue Jays have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Sean Manaea in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bats such as Jose Iglesias with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bowden Francis who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 85 games (+15.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.75 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.55

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