New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/18/2024

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to host the New York Mets on June 18, 2024, at Globe Life Field for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Rangers holding a 33-39 record and the Mets slightly better at 34-37. The Rangers' offense ranks 19th in MLB, while the Mets' offense is a bit more potent, ranking 14th.

Michael Lorenzen is slated to start for the Rangers. Despite an impressive 2.86 ERA, Lorenzen's 4.60 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate this season and may regress. Lorenzen has a 4-3 record over 11 starts, but his strikeout rate is below average, and he projects to allow a high number of hits and walks in this outing. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Luis Severino, who has a 3.12 ERA but a less flattering 4.18 xFIP. Severino's 4-2 record over 13 starts is solid, but like Lorenzen, he has been lucky and projects to struggle with hits and walks.

Offensively, the Rangers have been led by Josh H. Smith over the last week, boasting a .444 batting average and a 1.056 OPS in his last five games. Meanwhile, the Mets' J.D. Martinez has been on fire, hitting .417 with a 1.465 OPS over his last seven games, including three home runs and nine RBIs.

Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, with the Rangers ranked 12th and the Mets 18th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is projected to be tight, with betting markets giving both teams an implied win probability of 50% and an over/under set at 8.0 runs.

Given the matchups and recent performances, this game could hinge on which starting pitcher can outlast the other. With both Lorenzen and Severino projected to regress, the offenses might have a chance to shine. The Rangers' low-strikeout offense could have an edge against Severino, who has struggled to miss bats this season.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mark Vientos has big-time power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen has gone to his sinker 10% more often this season (21.8%) than he did last season (11.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Texas Rangers have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+21.25 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.63 vs Texas Rangers 4.55

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