New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/2/2025

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 2, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the New York Mets at Busch Stadium in an exciting National League matchup. This game is particularly significant as it marks the first contest in their series, with both teams looking to gain an early edge. The Cardinals, currently struggling at 14-18, are on a downward trend but have been bolstered by their offense, which ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season. Meanwhile, the Mets stand at a strong 21-11, displaying their elite capability.

In their previous outing, the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray pitched well, maintaining an undefeated 3-0 record this year. Although his ERA sits at a respectable 3.60, projections suggest he might face challenges today, particularly with his expected line of 5.4 innings, 2.5 earned runs, and a concerning average of 4.8 hits allowed. Despite his #33 ranking among pitchers, his overall performance has fluctuated, especially considering he projects to allow an alarming number of walks at 1.9.

In contrast, Mets' Clay Holmes has emerged as a standout starter this season, boasting a #12 ranking in MLB and an impressive 2.64 ERA. Holmes is projected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, making him a tough matchup for the Cardinals’ offense. However, his projections indicate a potential decline, suggesting he could be due for some regression.

While the Cardinals have shown offensive talent, ranking 3rd in team batting average, they will face a stern test against a Mets team that has an overall strong performance but falters in the bullpen, ranking 29th. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs set for this matchup and the Cardinals' moneyline currently at +100, bettors might find value in siding with the Cardinals, who are capable of surprising given their underlying talent.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (58% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Mark Vientos has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 32.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 23.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Over his previous 3 starts, Sonny Gray has seen a significant jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2387 rpm over the whole season to 2478 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.4, St. Louis Cardinals 3.8

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clay Holmes - Mets
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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