New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/11/2024

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On August 11, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the New York Mets in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mariners sitting at 61-56 and the Mets just a game ahead at 61-55. The stakes are relatively high, considering this is the third game in their series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

The Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid year with a 3.48 ERA and a record of 9-11 in 24 starts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Castillo ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he’s one of the more reliable arms in a somewhat shaky rotation. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs today. However, his propensity to allow 5.0 hits and 1.3 walks could give the Mets' offense, ranked 10th in MLB, some opportunities to capitalize.

Luis Severino will take the mound for New York. Though his ERA of 4.06 is above average, he has struggled this season and is ranked poorly among pitchers. The Mariners’ offense, while ranking a dismal 27th overall, has shown flashes of power, ranking 14th in home runs. They will need to find some consistency against Severino, especially given that they strike out more than any other team in the league.

The Mariners' best hitter recently has been Cal Raleigh, who has performed well over the last week, contributing significantly with a 0.786 OPS. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso has been the standout for the Mets, hitting two home runs in his last six games. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could be tightly contested, making the Mariners' current moneyline of -130 a noteworthy consideration for bettors looking for a close game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Severino has relied on his secondary pitches 12.7% less often this season (38.4%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's 2160-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 127-rpm fall off from last year's 2287-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck this year. His .279 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 62 of their last 107 games (+8.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 80% ROI)

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.72 vs Seattle Mariners 4.18

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