New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/10/2024

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the New York Mets on August 10, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive stretch, hovering just above .500. The Mariners stand at 60-56 this season, while the Mets are slightly ahead at 61-54. Although neither team is currently in contention for their division title, they remain in the Wild Card chase, making this matchup significant.

In their previous game, the Mariners got the better of the Mets and they will look for another win today with Logan Gilbert on the mound. Gilbert has had an impressive season, sporting an ERA of 3.05 and ranking as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to Power Rankings. His 6-8 record might not reflect his talent, but he possesses the ability to neutralize an offense. In contrast, Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Mets. Although he has a solid ERA of 3.30, his xFIP of 4.17 indicates that he might be due for a regression.

When looking at the offenses, the Mariners’ batting averages rank as the worst in MLB, while they show more prowess in home runs, landing 14th. Comparatively, the Mets boast a much stronger offense, ranking 10th in batting average and 4th in home runs. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game, especially with Gilbert's effectiveness against hitters.

Despite the Mariners' low implied team total of 3.70 runs, projections lean slightly in their favor, estimating they can produce an average of 4.36 runs in this contest. As both teams strive for a critical victory, fans can expect a closely contested game where pitching might ultimately dictate the outcome.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Over his previous 3 starts, Sean Manaea has suffered a notable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2027 rpm over the whole season to 1968 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

In the last two weeks, Francisco Lindor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has tallied 19.3 outs per GS this year, placing in the 99th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Garver has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seattle's 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Logan Gilbert has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.25 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4 vs Seattle Mariners 4.51

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.