New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 8/9/2024

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the New York Mets on August 9, 2024, both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, sitting closely in the standings with records of 60-56 and 61-54, respectively. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and both squads are looking to gain momentum as they continue their campaigns.

In their last game on August 8, the Mariners secured a narrow victory over the Detroit Tigers with a score of 4-3. Meanwhile, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess with a dominant 9-1 win against the Colorado Rockies, bolstered by their powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs this season. In contrast, the Mariners' offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and dead last in team batting average.

On the mound, Seattle is set to start Bryce Miller, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. Despite having a solid ERA of 3.62, Miller's peripheral indicators suggest he might see a decline in performance moving forward. On the other side, Jose Quintana takes the hill for New York, presenting a unique challenge for the Mariners, given that his low strikeout rate could play into the hands of Seattle's strikeout-heavy lineup.

Interestingly, projections indicate that the Mariners could score around 4.46 runs in this matchup, while the Mets are expected to tally about 4.18 runs. With odds placing the Mariners at -120 and an implied team total of 3.84 runs, they are considered slight favorites, yet the projections lean toward a tighter contest. Given the recent performances and the dynamics of each team's offense against their respective pitchers, this game promises to be a compelling battle worth watching.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Quintana will give up an average of 2.1 singles in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Mark Vientos has been lucky this year, posting a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .050 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Mets have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 14.6% from last season to this one (58.5% to 43.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Mitch Haniger is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 49 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.27 vs Seattle Mariners 4.56

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