New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Picks 4/22/2024

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -205, Giants -1.5 175
• Money Line: Mets 105, Giants -125
• Total (Over/Under): 8

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 47%
• San Francisco Giants - 53%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 41.92%
• San Francisco Giants - 58.08%

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

The New York Mets are set to take on the San Francisco Giants in a National League matchup at Oracle Park on April 22, 2024. The Giants will be the home team for this game, with the Mets playing as the away team.

The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn, while the Mets will likely start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Winn is an average starting pitcher, ranked #120 out of approximately 350 pitchers. Quintana, however, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the same rankings.

Winn has started four games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.09, which is above average. His expected ERA (xERA) is 4.75, suggesting that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward. Quintana has also started four games, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.05. However, his xFIP is 4.82, indicating that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank as the 16th best team in MLB, while the Mets come in at 8th. However, the Giants have struggled with their batting average and stolen bases, ranking 21st and 29th respectively in these categories. The Mets have a higher batting average but are average in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

When it comes to their bullpens, the Giants' bullpen is ranked as the second-best in MLB, while the Mets' bullpen ranks 21st. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are projected to be the favorites in this game, with a win probability of 60%. The Mets, on the other hand, are considered underdogs, with a win probability of 40%. The current moneyline reflects a close game, with the Giants at -120 and the Mets at +100.

Based on the projections, the Giants are expected to score more runs than the Mets, with an average of 4.55 runs compared to the Mets' 3.86 runs. THE BAT X also suggests that the Giants have an 8% greater win probability than the betting market implies, potentially indicating value in betting on the Giants.

Overall, this matchup between the Giants and the Mets is shaping up to be an intriguing game. The Giants will be looking to improve their record, while the Mets aim to continue their strong season. With the pitching matchup and offensive rankings in mind, the Giants have the edge according to projections. However, anything can happen in baseball, and both teams will be fighting for the win on April 22.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jose Quintana in the 24th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, hitters like Starling Marte who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Keaton Winn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

D.J. Stewart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Tom Murphy has big-time HR ability (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana is a pitch-to-contact type (14th percentile K%) — great news for Murphy.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 82 of their last 134 games (+24.47 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jose Quintana has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Mets vs Giants Prediction: Mets 4.12 - Giants 4.64

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.