New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On August 24, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the New York Mets at Petco Park in a crucial National League matchup. The Padres are currently 72-57 and sit comfortably in the playoff race, while the Mets are 67-61, aiming for an above-average finish. Both teams are vying to secure a favorable position as the season winds down.

In their last game, the Padres crushed the Mets in a 7-0 shutout. Their solid season is buoyed by the performance of Michael King, who is projected to take the mound. King boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 11-6 and a stellar 3.18 ERA, ranking him as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. He averages 6.5 strikeouts per game, and although he allows a concerning average of 4.8 hits, his ability to limit earned runs bodes well for the Padres.

On the other hand, David Peterson is set to start for the Mets. While he has an exceptional 7-1 record and a 3.00 ERA, his 4.28 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some luck this season. Furthermore, Peterson's low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) might be a disadvantage against the Padres, who are adept at making contact and rank as the 1st least strikeout-prone offense in the league.

The Padres' offense has excelled this season, ranking 8th overall and leading in batting average, while the Mets' lineup, ranked 7th, has also shown considerable power, ranking 4th in home runs. However, the Padres' bullpen is rated 8th, significantly stronger than the Mets' 22nd ranking.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Padres favored at -150 with an implied team total of 4.06 runs, tonight's game promises to be a closely contested battle. Fans and bettors alike will be keen to see if San Diego can build on their recent successes against New York.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's sinker rate has increased by 7% from last season to this one (24.6% to 31.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mark Vientos has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 97.8-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.4-mph fall off from last season's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, bats like Bryce Johnson who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 46 games (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.03 vs San Diego Padres 4.32

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.