New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 7/30/2025
The San Diego Padres will host the New York Mets at Petco Park on Wednesday afternoon. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race in the National League. The Padres have all the momentum going into the final game of this three-game series after taking the first two. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Padres vs Mets prediction.
Our Mets vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets |
| Date & Time | July 30, 2025, 4:10 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Clay Holmes vs. Yu Darvish |
| Stadium | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Broadcast | MLB Network |
Key Storylines to Watch
Team Momentum: The Padres have won four straight games going into this contest. That includes the first two games of this series. They are just four games back of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. The Mets have dropped two straight games and are just a half-game ahead of the Phillies in the NL East standings.
Offensive Production: The Mets lead the Padres in runs per game (4.38 vs. 4.07) and home runs (135 vs. 91). But it has been the pitching of the Padres that has helped them get wins in the first two games of this series.
Bullpen Usage: The Padres have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. They are the only team in the league with a bullpen ERA under 3.00 for the season. They have shown why in this series as their bullpen has helped them to secure wins in each of the first two games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Pete Alonso | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Manny Machado | RBIs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
The Padres are 2-0 against the Mets so far this season.
Games between these teams have gone 1-1 in the over/under so far in 2025.
The Mets are 24-18 in day games this year. The Padres are 24-15 in such games.
Mets vs Padres Model Projection
Projected Score: Mets 5 – Padres 4
Win Probability: Mets 55%, Padres 45%
Final Thoughts
The Padres have dominated the proceedings in this series so far. But I think that changes with this contest. The Mets have a massive starting pitching advantage here with Clay Holmes on the mound against the struggling Yu Darvish. That should be enough to help the Mets get out to a lead. They will hold onto that lead despite San Diego having the better bullpen in this series.
