New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 7/28/2025
The New York Mets will face the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Monday night. The Mets enter the game as slight underdogs. But New York is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and will look to keep that hot streak alive with another win here. Before first pitch from San Diego, be sure to continue reading to get my Mets vs Padres prediction.
Our Mets vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 9:40 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas (Mets) vs Dylan Cease (Padres)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: SNY, PDTV, MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
- Frankie Montas (Mets): Montas has a 3-1 record with a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 25.1 innings pitched this season. He has shown solid control with 23 strikeouts and only 6 walks.
- Dylan Cease (Padres): Cease has a 3-10 record and a 4.59 ERA over 113.2 innings. He has an impressive 144 strikeouts but has also walked 42 batters. Consistency will be key with Cease in this game.
Key Players
- Juan Soto (Mets): Soto has 25 home runs and 62 RBI this season. He provides significant power in the lineup.
- Manny Machado (Padres): Machado leads the Padres with a .300 batting average, 19 home runs, and 66 RBI.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Mets have won seven games in a row coming into this matchup.
- The Padres have won two games in a row to build some momentum before facing the Mets.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Over 0.5 Stolen Bases |
| Francisco Lindor | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of six games that these teams will play against each other this season.
- Mets games have stayed under their totals 54.5% of the time this season.
- Padres games have stayed under their totals 58.3% of the time this year.
Mets vs Padres Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 5 – Padres 4
- Win Probability: Mets 55%, Padres 45%
Final Thoughts
The Mets are playing some of the best baseball in the major leagues right now. They continue to shut down opposing teams and do enough offensively to pick up victories. Montas hasn’t been great this season for the Mets. But Cease has had his struggles as well. I’ll take the Mets at plus money to extend their seven-game winning streak.
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