New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 7/5/2024

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets square off on July 5, 2024, at PNC Park in a National League matchup. The Pirates, currently holding a 41-45 record, are having a below-average season, while the Mets, at 42-43, are experiencing an average year. This game is the first in the series between these two teams.

The Pirates will send Paul Skenes to the mound. Skenes, a right-handed pitcher, has been nothing short of elite this season, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. With a stellar 2.06 ERA and a 4-0 record over 9 starts, Skenes has been a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster Pirates season. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a 2.72 xERA, suggest he may have been a bit fortunate and could regress slightly.

The Mets counter with Luis Severino, who has posted a solid 3.42 ERA and a 5-2 record over 16 starts. Despite these numbers, Severino's peripheral stats, including a 4.19 xFIP, indicate he has also been somewhat lucky. Severino's low strikeout rate (18.5%) could play to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in MLB in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled mightily, ranking 28th overall. Their team batting average sits at 24th, and they are 25th in home runs. In contrast, the Mets boast the 7th best offense, ranking 9th in batting average and 4th in home runs. This disparity could be pivotal, especially considering Skenes's high groundball rate (48%), which could neutralize some of the Mets' power.

Both bullpens are average, with the Pirates ranked 17th and the Mets 18th in the Power Rankings. This game is projected to be close, with the Pirates holding a slight edge according to the betting markets. The Pirates' moneyline is set at -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Mets are at +110, implying a 46% chance.

In their last games, the Pirates and Mets both faced different opponents, with the Pirates' offense showing some life thanks to Rowdy Tellez, who has been their best hitter over the last week, batting .294 with a .941 OPS. For the Mets, Brandon Nimmo has been hot, hitting .286 with a .995 OPS and contributing significantly to their recent offensive output.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Severino has relied on his non-fastballs 13.2% less often this season (37.9%) than he did last year (51.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Francisco Lindor has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 23.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 32.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2241 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2300 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 61 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.43 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.06

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.