New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/29/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Mets on June 29, 2025, at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Mets, currently enjoying a solid season with a 48-36 record, are looking to bounce back from two straight losses to the Pirates. Meanwhile, the Pirates are struggling, sitting at 34-50 and battling through a disappointing campaign, though they have played well so far this weekend.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Michael Burrows, who has had a rough season. With a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.45, Burrows ranks as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating below-average performance. His projections for today's game suggest he will pitch around 3.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs and striking out just 3.5 batters—numbers that don't inspire confidence. Additionally, Burrows has been unlucky this year, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.88, which is lower than his ERA.

Conversely, the Mets will send Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas has only started once this season but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.93 suggests that he may have benefitted from some good fortune. Despite this, Montas's ability to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing around 3.0 earned runs could be a significant advantage against a struggling Pirates offense, which ranks 30th in home runs this season.

The Pirates' offense, despite ranking 5th in stolen bases, has been lackluster overall, contributing to their poor season. The Mets, on the other hand, rank 6th in MLB offensively, which bodes well for their chances today. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Mets, who have a strong implied team total of 5.17 runs compared to the Pirates' 4.33 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Frankie Montas has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling an 8.85 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.12 — a 0.73 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Mark Vientos is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Mets hitters as a group rank among the elite in MLB this year (3rd-) as it relates to their 90.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 80.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 25% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.33, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.66

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Mets
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.