New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/27/2025

On June 27, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Mets at PNC Park in a matchup that highlights two teams trending in opposite directions this season. The Pirates, sitting at 32-50, are struggling mightily, while the Mets boast a much stronger record of 48-34. The Mets are coming off of a couple of wins in a row over their division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, and will look to continue their winning ways to open this series.

Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound against New York's David Peterson. Keller, despite ranking as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rough season with a 1-10 record. His 4.02 ERA is above average, but a 3.25 FIP suggests he may have been unlucky. However, Keller's projections indicate he will typically pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a solid Mets lineup.

Conversely, Peterson has been more effective this year with a 5-3 record and an excellent 2.98 ERA. Yet, his underlying stats hint at a potential regression. He projects similarly to Keller in terms of innings pitched but allows slightly fewer earned runs. Both pitchers are expected to face lineups that reflect their respective strengths and weaknesses.

The Pirates' offense ranks as the 29th worst in MLB, struggling to produce runs despite a decent stolen base ranking. In contrast, the Mets have the 5th best offense, which includes a strong home run production rate. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, Pittsburgh's underdog status at +140 could provide value for bettors, especially if they can exploit Peterson's susceptibility to groundballs against their power-deficient lineup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball bats, David Peterson and his 51.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this game facing 4 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.1% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 74% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.53, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.8

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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