New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/28/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the New York Mets on June 28, 2025, at PNC Park, the Pirates are looking to build on their Friday performance. Yesterday, the Pirates got a win over the Mets yesterday and the Mets will look to bounce back from that defeat in the second game of this series.

In this National League matchup, the Pirates will send Bailey Falter to the mound, who has had a mixed season. Although his 3.59 ERA suggests he's been effective, his 4.85 xFIP indicates he may have been lucky thus far. Falter's projected performance today is concerning, as he’s expected to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs. The Pirates' offense, ranked 29th in the league and particularly weak in power with only 30 home runs this season, faces a tough challenge against the Mets' powerful lineup, which ranks 6th in home runs with 108 this season.

On the other hand, the Mets will counter with Paul Blackburn, who has struggled this year with a 6.62 ERA and a 0-2 record. Despite his poor showing, projections suggest he could perform better today, as he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts. Blackburn's low strikeout rate plays into the Pirates' weakness, potentially allowing them to make some noise at the plate.

With the Mets entering this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -150, their implied team total of 4.89 runs reflects confidence in their offensive capabilities. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair, particularly given the Pirates' ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all SPs, Paul Blackburn's fastball velocity of 91.2 mph ranks in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bats such as Starling Marte with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Falter who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.61, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.08

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

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