New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the New York Mets on September 15, 2024, this National League East showdown carries significant weight. The Phillies, boasting an impressive 89-59 record, currently sit atop the division, while the Mets, with an 81-67 record, are in a solid position but not in contention for the division title.

In their last game, the Phillies showcased their offensive prowess, and their recent form has been stellar, particularly from Bryce Harper, who has been their standout hitter over the last week. Harper's contributions, including a remarkable .435 batting average and 10 hits in just six games, underscore the Phillies’ strong lineup. Furthermore, they rank 4th in MLB in offensive production, which has been complemented by Cristopher Sanchez’s solid pitching. Sanchez, projected to start, has been effective this season with a 3.33 ERA and is currently ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his capability to handle pressure.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with David Peterson, who holds a less favorable matchup against a high-powered Phillies offense. While the Mets have the advantage of strength in their batting with a 5th ranking in home runs, they have struggled with consistency, particularly against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez. The projections suggest that the Phillies could score around 4.69 runs, while the Mets are projected for just 3.93.

With a competitive edge and home-field advantage, the Phillies are favored in this matchup, making them a promising option for bettors looking for favorable odds. As the game unfolds, it will be fascinating to see if the Phillies can continue their winning streak and capitalize on their strong offensive capabilities against the Mets.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2139-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 22nd percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pete Alonso's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81.8-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez (55.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, batters like Johan Rojas who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Paul Blackburn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Philadelphia Phillies offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 47% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.93 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.69

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