New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 9/9/2025
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will face off in another huge NL East matchup on Tuesday. Expect a packed Citizens Bank Park and a playoff atmosphere as the Phillies try to protect their division lead while the Mets chase both the division title and Wild Card positioning. Philadelphia won the first game of this series and will try to further extend their lead. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Mets vs Phillies prediction.
Our Mets vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Phillies Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 9, 6:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs Ranger Suárez
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia, SNY
Key Storylines
- Head-to-head has leaned Mets in 2025: New York holds a 7-3 edge to date but that hasn’t moved the Mets much closer in the NL East race.
- Philadelphia’s ace Zack Wheeler is out for the season but the rotation behind him has carried on with strong advanced metrics and the Phils have surged at home.
- The Mets have lost three games in a row coming into this contest and can’t afford to continue losing games if they want to have a shot at making the postseason.
Pitching matchup
- Sean Manaea: Manaea has had his ups and downs so far this season. He is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA. He has 59 strikeouts in 45 innings of work this season and missing bats will be important against the power bats of the Phillies.
- Ranger Suárez: Suarez is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA this season. His recent form includes seven scoreless innings against Washington and six scoreless innings against Milwaukee in a 2-0 win.
Recent team streaks
- Mets: The Mets have lost three straight games and four of their last five.
- Phillies: Philadelphia has won four of its last five games heading into this Tuesday night matchup.
Best Player Props
| Player | Market | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Run | Over 0.5 |
| Sean Manaea | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Ranger Suárez | Strikeouts | Under 6.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Mets lead 7-3 but the Phillies won their most recent meeting on Monday.
- The home team has won five straight games between these teams.
- New York is 31-41 on the road this season.
- Philadelphia is 46-23 on the year thus far.
Mets vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 4 – Phillies 5
Win Probability: Mets 47%, Phillies 53%
Final Thoughts
The Phillies should have the upper hand in this matchup. Philadelphia has the superior starting pitching situation coming into this matchup thanks to Ranger Suarez. Expect the Phillies to get to Manaea early in the game and to build an early advantage that they will hang onto as the game goes on. I’ll take the Phillies on the moneyline and I don’t mind the idea of backing them on the runline as well at a plus price.
