New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/20/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the New York Mets on June 20, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race in the National League East, with matching records of 45-30. The stakes are high, and this matchup marks the start of an exciting series between two clubs enjoying solid seasons.

The Phillies will be sending ace Zack Wheeler to the mound, touting an impressive Power Ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Wheeler has been nothing short of spectacular this season, boasting a 7-2 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.76. Despite his tendency to allow a high number of hits (4.9 projected today), Wheeler’s low walk rate at 5.6 BB% gives him a significant advantage against a Mets offense that ranks 3rd in the league for drawing walks. This could lessen the effectiveness of the Mets' patient approach at the plate.

On the other hand, the Mets will counter with Blade Tidwell, who has struggled mightily this year with a 0-1 record and a dismal ERA of 14.73. While his xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, one start isn't enough to instill confidence. His projections indicate a rough outing, with a projected 2.8 earned runs over 4.4 innings, which could spell trouble against a potent Phillies offense that ranks 6th overall and 3rd in team batting average.

The Phillies are substantial favorites, reflected in their moneyline of -240, and with an implied team total of 5.13 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage. As both teams aim to solidify their standings, this pivotal matchup could heavily influence the race for the postseason.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Blade Tidwell allowed a monstrous 6 earned runs in his last game started.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball bats like Starling Marte tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to average, Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 55 games (+12.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.59, Philadelphia Phillies 5.44

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blade Tidwell - Mets
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.