New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 6/22/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the New York Mets on June 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the National League East. With identical records of 46-31, this matchup carries significant weight as both clubs look to maintain their momentum. The Mets are coming off a solid performance where they showcased their offensive prowess, while the Phillies hope to rebound after a tough outing.

On the mound, the Phillies will send out Jesus Luzardo, who has been solid this season, boasting a 6-3 record and an average ERA of 4.41. Despite being ranked as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB, Luzardo’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as his 3.21 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. The Phillies' offense, ranked 6th in the league, should provide ample run support, particularly against a Mets lineup that has struggled with consistency, ranking 18th in team batting average.

David Peterson takes the hill for the Mets, coming off a strong season with a 5-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.60. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests he could be due for some regression. The Mets' offense, while ranking 5th overall, has shown vulnerability at times, which could be exploited by Luzardo and a potent Phillies lineup.

With a high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors should expect a competitive game. The Phillies' implied team total of 4.55 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Peterson's potential weaknesses. Given their strong offensive performance and Luzardo's potential for improvement, the Phillies appear poised to take this critical matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Compared to average, David Peterson has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball bats like Starling Marte are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo has utilized his four-seam fastball 5.2% less often this season (34.3%) than he did last season (39.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+12.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.14, Philadelphia Phillies 4.97

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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