New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 6/21/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the New York Mets on June 21, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an exciting National League East matchup. Both teams are in strong positions this season, with the Phillies holding a record of 46-30 and the Mets at 45-31. The stakes are high as they battle for playoff positioning in a tightly contested division.

The Phillies are projected to start Mick Abel, a right-handed pitcher who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.21 this season, despite being ranked as the 267th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Abel's four-game start this season has seen him maintain a perfect 2-0 record, but projections suggest he may struggle today, averaging 4.5 innings pitched and allowing 3.2 earned runs.

Countering Abel is the Mets’ Griffin Canning, who has a 3.80 ERA and a more established record with 14 starts this season (6-3). However, his projections indicate a potential decline, as he is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs in five innings of work.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 7th in MLB, with a strong batting average of .268, while the Mets sit 5th overall. The Mets will need to capitalize on their power, ranking 7th in home runs, to keep pace.

The game total is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting the offensive capabilities of both teams. With the Phillies' high implied team total of 4.86 runs, they could leverage their strong lineup against Canning, whose control issues may play to Philadelphia's advantage.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Griffin Canning's slider percentage has risen by 7.6% from last season to this one (24% to 31.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the past week's worth of games, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 6.12, Philadelphia Phillies 5.59

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Mick Abel - Phillies

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.