New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction – 5/18/2025

On May 18, 2025, an exciting Interleague matchup unfolds at Yankee Stadium as the New York Yankees host the New York Mets. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees holding a record of 26-19 and the Mets at 29-17. This game carries significance as it marks the third in the series between these teams, setting the stage for a competitive clash.

Max Fried, currently ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, enters this matchup with a perfect 6-0 record and an incredible ERA of 1.11. Although his 3.54 xFIP indicates that he might experience regression, his recent form suggests he could continue to excel against the Mets. Fried’s average projections for the game suggest he will pitch 6.0 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters. His strikeout capabilities will be essential in neutralizing the Mets' offense, ranked 6th in the league.

On the other mound is David Peterson, who has struggled in his own right. While his ERA sits at a respectable 3.05, his underlying metrics indicate he may be due for a downturn. Peterson's 4.41 xERA highlights potential vulnerabilities that the powerful Yankees offense is likely to exploit. The Yankees rank as the 2nd best offense in the league and lead with 78 home runs, showcasing their capability to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Yankees positioned as significant betting favorites at -170 and projecting a team total of 4.77 runs, they appear poised to build on their success and deliver a win against the Mets.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (90.8 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Brandon Nimmo will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball batters like DJ LeMahieu usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the New York Yankees today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .334, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .353 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.72 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.09 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.03, New York Yankees 5.25

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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