New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction – 5/17/2025

On May 17, 2025, a high-stakes Interleague matchup unfolds at Yankee Stadium as the New York Yankees host the New York Mets. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 26-18 and the Mets slightly ahead at 28-17. The stakes are amplified as these two rivals clash for the second time in the series, following the Yankees' victory in yesterday's game.

Projected starters Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees and Griffin Canning for the Mets present an intriguing contrast. Schmidt, ranked as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has struggled with a 1-1 record and a 4.73 ERA this season. However, his 3.06 xERA hints at better days ahead, suggesting he may have been unlucky thus far. Schmidt projects to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is below average but could be bolstered by the Yankees' elite offense.

Conversely, Canning boasts an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar 2.36 ERA this season, although his 3.38 xFIP indicates potential regression. He projects to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in overall offensive power, including leading the league in home runs with 76.

The Yankees' moneyline sits at -135, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure another win, while the Mets at +115 will need Canning to deliver beyond expectations to keep pace. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, fans should anticipate an exciting showdown.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Griffin Canning is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #7 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Juan Soto has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.3% seasonal rate to 30.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (88.6% vs. 79.1% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Cody Bellinger is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.336 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .354 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• Clarke Schmidt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+0.30 Units / 8% ROI)

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.11, New York Yankees 5.7

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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