New York Mets vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/16/2025

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the New York Mets on May 16, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, positioned competitively with records of 25-18 and 28-16, respectively. This Interleague matchup holds added significance as it marks the first game in the series between these two storied rivals. The Yankees come in as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their solid performance this season.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, bringing a solid 4-3 record and a commendable 3.29 ERA. Rodon is a high-strikeout pitcher (31.2 K%) up against a Mets offense that ranks 5th in the league for the least strikeouts, which could present a unique challenge for him. However, his ability to generate strikeouts might be mitigated by the Mets' discipline at the plate. Meanwhile, Tylor Megill, with his 3-3 record and 3.10 ERA, will be on the hill for the Mets. Although Megill's K% (29.6) suggests he’s also capable of racking up strikeouts, he faces a Yankees lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 5th in the league in that category.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in baseball and are particularly dangerous with their power, leading the league in home runs. The projections indicate that the Yankees are expected to score around 4.81 runs today. In contrast, the Mets’ 5th best offense has displayed strong performance as well, but they have struggled recently with consistency, particularly against high-strikeout pitchers.

With both teams fielding strong lineups, this matchup promises to be an exciting one, especially with postseason aspirations on the line. A high Game Total of 9.0 runs suggests that runs could be plentiful, making for an engaging game at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tylor Megill has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 9.5% less often this season (34.2%) than he did last season (43.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Juan Soto has been hot of late, bashing 5 dingers in the last two weeks.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The New York Mets projected offense ranks as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball batters like DJ LeMahieu tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York Yankees batters jointly grade out in the league for power this year when judging by their 12.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+5.94 Units / 15% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 101% ROI)

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.02, New York Yankees 5.02

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Get daily MLB picks here.