New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/14/2025

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 14, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the New York Mets at Target Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Twins, struggling this season with a record of 5-11, will be looking to turn things around. In stark contrast, the Mets enter this game with a solid 10-5 record, showcasing a strong start to their campaign.

Projected starters for this game are Joe Ryan for the Twins and Clay Holmes for the Mets. Ryan, currently ranked as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has been effective with a 2.65 ERA this season. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression moving forward. Ryan has started three games this year, holding a 1-1 record, and his projections show he will average 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs.

In contrast, Clay Holmes, ranked 18th in MLB, has a 4.30 ERA, indicating a more average performance overall. His projections show he is likely to yield 2.2 earned runs across 5.3 innings, and he has been somewhat unlucky this season. The high walk rate of 13.0% may be of concern against a Twins lineup that has struggled to take walks, ranking 4th least in MLB.

Offensively, the Twins’ lineup ranks 26th in runs scored and batting average, highlighting their struggles at the plate. Meanwhile, the Mets rank 22nd in offense but have managed to score just enough to win games. With the Twins' bullpen rated 8th best in MLB and the Mets' bullpen at 22nd, the advantage may lean toward Minnesota if the game is close late.

With the Twins' current moneyline set at -115, they are seen as slight favorites in what should be a tightly contested game, and there is potential for value in backing them to improve their fortunes at home.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Considering that flyball hitters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Clay Holmes and his 57.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's game going up against 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball bats like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has relied on his secondary pitches 11.9% less often this season (33.7%) than he did last season (45.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 60% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 away games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 77% ROI)

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.2, Minnesota Twins 4.06

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clay Holmes - Mets
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.