New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 4/15/2025

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets meet for the second game of their interleague series on April 15, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Twins, struggling with a 5-12 record this season, rank 25th in MLB offensive performance. Meanwhile, the Mets boast an impressive 11-5 record, putting them in a strong position within their division.

In their most recent matchup, the Mets secured a narrow victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the Twins' weaknesses. Bailey Ober is projected to take the mound for Minnesota, bringing a 0-1 record and a troubling 7.11 ERA from his three starts this season. Although Ober is ranked 59th among starting pitchers, indicating he’s still considered good by some metrics, his performance has left much to be desired. His xFIP of 4.68 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement.

On the other side, Tylor Megill, projected to start for the Mets, has been a standout with a 2-1 record and a remarkable 0.63 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.49 indicates he might be due for some regression. Megill's high walk rate (11.3 BB%) could pose issues against a Twins lineup that draws one of the least amount of walks in MLB.

With the projections favoring the Twins slightly for this matchup at home, bettors may want to consider the Twins’ potential for a bounce-back performance, especially given their solid bullpen, currently ranked 5th in MLB.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's 2340-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a notable 122-rpm increase from last year's 2218-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Pete Alonso has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last year to 24.5% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is projected to strikeout 5.6 batters today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Willi Castro's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.6-mph mark last season has dropped off to 81.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 103 games (+15.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 120 games (+15.15 Units / 10% ROI)

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.46, Minnesota Twins 4.18

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

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