New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the New York Mets on September 27, 2024, both teams are in the thick of their respective playoff races. The Brewers, boasting a strong 91-68 record, look to solidify their postseason position with a win at American Family Field. Meanwhile, the Mets, sitting at 87-70, are not far behind and are eager to bolster their playoff hopes.

On the mound, the Brewers will send Frankie Montas, a right-hander with a 7-11 record and a 4.85 ERA this season. Despite his less-than-stellar ERA, his 4.25 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could see a turnaround. Montas projects to go five innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. However, his struggles with hits and walks might pose a challenge.

Opposing him is Mets lefty Sean Manaea, who has been more successful this season with a 12-5 record and a 3.29 ERA. Despite his success, his 3.97 xFIP indicates some luck has been on his side, and he might not maintain his current level of performance. Manaea is also projected to pitch five innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters.

The Brewers' offense ranks as the 10th-best in MLB, with an impressive 2nd-place ranking in stolen bases, giving them an edge in creating scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, the Mets' offense, ranked 8th overall, excels in power with a 6th-place ranking in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a 56% chance to win, suggesting value in backing them, especially considering the betting market's implied probability of just 47%. A victory for Milwaukee could give them a crucial boost as they push toward the postseason.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph drop off from last season's 92.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Despite posting a .359 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has had positive variance on his side given the .044 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #5 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Frankie Montas has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 149 games (+6.90 Units / 4% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 100 games (+15.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 67% ROI)

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.18 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.35

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.