New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/22/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets on July 22, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in a National League East matchup. The Marlins, sitting at 35-64, are enduring a rough season, while the Mets, at 50-48, are having an average year. The Marlins are projected to start Yonny Chirinos, a right-hander ranked #291 among MLB starting pitchers, suggesting he's one of the worst in the league. Conversely, the Mets will counter with lefty David Peterson, who is having a solid season with a 4-0 record and a 3.09 ERA.

Chirinos has struggled mightily, posting a 5.76 ERA and a 0-1 record over five starts. His 5.18 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky, but his high 41% flyball rate could be problematic against the Mets' powerful lineup, ranked 5th in the league with 121 home runs. On the other hand, Peterson's 4.54 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate this season, and his high 10.0% walk rate might not be as exposed against the Marlins, who rank last in MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Marlins have been among the worst in the league, ranking 29th overall, 24th in batting average, and dead last in home runs. Their lack of power may not hurt them as much against Peterson, a high-groundball pitcher. The Mets, however, boast the 7th best offense, 10th in batting average, and 5th in home runs, giving them a significant edge.

The bullpens are relatively evenly matched, with the Marlins ranked 14th and the Mets 19th in MLB. The Marlins are underdogs with a moneyline of +140, giving them an implied win probability of 40%, while the Mets are favored at -165, translating to a 60% implied win probability.

Given the Marlins' offensive struggles and Chirinos' poor performance, the Mets' potent lineup and Peterson's solid season make New York the more likely team to come out on top. However, if Chirinos can avoid the long ball and the Marlins can capitalize on Peterson's control issues, Miami might have a chance to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2141-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 21st percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mark Vientos has strong power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Yonny Chirinos doesn't generate many whiffs (21st percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Yonny Chirinos is projected to throw 84 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jake Burger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 97.7-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #25 club in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+14.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+12.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.15 vs Miami Marlins 4.24

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