New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pick – 3/31/2025

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the New York Mets on March 31, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position early in the season, boasting a record of 3-1 compared to the Mets' disappointing 1-2 start. The Marlins are riding high, having won three of their first four games, while the Mets are struggling to find their footing. Notably, in their last outing, the Mets suffered a complete game shutout loss, which adds pressure as they look to bounce back against the Marlins.

On the mound, Miami is slated to start Cal Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher who currently sits at #394 in advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating he is among the weaker performers in MLB. Quantrill's projections suggest he'll struggle today, with averages of 4.7 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, New York counters with David Peterson, a lefty who also has not made a strong impression in previous outings but projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs.

From an offensive standpoint, the Marlins' bats rank 27th overall and boast only an average team batting average of .243. Their performance has been bolstered by their best hitter, who recently showcased a significant form with a .417 batting average and a 1.000 OPS over the past week. Conversely, the Mets' offense ranks 9th overall and is particularly potent in terms of power, ranking 6th in home runs, despite their recent woes.

With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs and the Marlins as underdogs with an implied team total of just 3.68 runs, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup. If the Marlins can capitalize on their home advantage and exploit the Mets’ recent struggles, they may defy the odds and secure a pivotal win in this early season series.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The Miami Marlins have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his home runs, Mark Vientos has been lucky since the start of last season. His 35.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Since the start of last season, Javier Sanoja's 0% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 77 games at home (+27.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 121 games (+21.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Eric Wagaman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.