New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 7/19/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins, currently stuck in the basement of the National League East with a 33-63 record, are set to host the New York Mets on July 19, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. The Mets, sitting at 49-46, are having an above-average season and are pushing for a playoff spot. This series opener features a pitching matchup between Edward Cabrera for the Marlins and Sean Manaea for the Mets.

Cabrera, a right-hander, has had a tough season with a 1-3 record and an ugly 8.26 ERA through seven starts. However, advanced metrics like his 3.35 xFIP suggest he's been unlucky and might be poised for better performances ahead. On the flip side, Manaea, a lefty, holds a solid 6-3 record with a 3.46 ERA over 18 starts. However, his 4.24 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate thus far and could see some regression.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled massively, ranking 29th in overall offense, 24th in batting average, 30th in home runs, and 22nd in stolen bases. In stark contrast, the Mets boast the 7th best offense in MLB, ranking 10th in batting average and 5th in home runs. This mismatch clearly favors the Mets, especially considering the Marlins have an impatient offense that might not exploit Manaea's high walk rate.

Bullpen-wise, the Marlins hold a slight edge, ranking 13th compared to the Mets at 20th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a key factor in a close game, as the betting markets suggest, with the Marlins at +115 (45% implied win probability) and the Mets at -135 (55% implied win probability).

Both teams have something to prove in this series opener. With Cabrera projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.0 innings and Manaea projected to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.3 innings, the game total is set at an average 8.0 runs. Although the Marlins' offense has been dismal, and their season far from ideal, Cabrera’s underlying stats hint at a potential bounce-back. This could make this game much closer than expected, possibly tipping in favor of the Marlins if they can capitalize on Manaea's projected regression.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's 2034-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 9th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .424 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Iglesias has been lucky given the .137 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .287.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 9.7% Barrel% of the New York Mets makes them the #3 club in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Recording 12.1 outs per GS this year on average, Edward Cabrera places in the 2nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Xavier Edwards is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 57 games (+15.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.45 vs Miami Marlins 4.34

Get daily MLB picks here.