New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 5/18/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets on May 18, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. Both teams have had their struggles this season, with the Marlins holding a dismal 14-32 record, while the Mets sit at 20-24.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Braxton Garrett, who has had a tough season so far. With an ERA of 8.44, Garrett has struggled on the mound. However, his 2.02 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On average, Garrett is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and surrendering 5.4 hits and 1.0 walk.

The Mets will counter with right-handed pitcher Luis Severino, who has had a more promising season. With an ERA of 3.00, Severino has been solid on the mound. However, his 3.94 xFIP indicates that he may have been somewhat lucky and could regress in future performances. On average, Severino is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and giving up 5.8 hits and 1.6 walks.

The Marlins offense ranks as the second-worst in MLB this season, while the Mets offense sits at 21st. However, the Marlins excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league. The Mets, on the other hand, have shown some power, ranking 11th in team home runs.

The Marlins' best hitter this season has been Emmanuel Rivera, while J.D. Martinez has been the standout for the Mets. In their last seven games, Rivera has shown a perfect 1.000 batting average, while Martinez has recorded 10 hits, 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs, boasting a .370 batting average and a 1.080 OPS.

In terms of the odds, the Marlins enter the game as the underdogs with a +115 moneyline, implying a win probability of 45%. The Mets, with a -135 moneyline, have a slight edge with a 55% win probability.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Marlins and the inconsistent Mets. The Marlins' offense will need to find a way to overcome Severino's high groundball rate, while the Mets will look to take advantage of Garrett's high-strikeout ability against their low-strikeout offense. With a low Game Total set at 7.5 runs, this game has the potential to be tightly contested.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Severino has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.3% less often this season (41.8%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in Major League Baseball: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all starters, Braxton Garrett's fastball velocity of 89.9 mph ranks in the 6th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.75 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Christian Bethancourt hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.41 vs Miami Marlins 4.44

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