New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/21/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Houser - Mets
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 110, Dodgers -1.5 -130
• Money Line: Mets 210, Dodgers -250
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 31%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 69%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 29.25%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 70.75%

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets in an exciting National League matchup at Dodger Stadium on April 21, 2024. The game is set to be a clash between two teams having solid seasons, with the Dodgers boasting a 12-11 record, while the Mets have been impressive with a 12-8 record.

The Dodgers will have the home-field advantage in this game, and they have been performing above average this season. They are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the other hand, the Mets have been having a great season so far, and they will be the away team in this matchup. Their projected starting pitcher is Adrian Houser, who has struggled this year and is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards.

Glasnow has been solid this season, with a 3-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.72. His xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Houser, on the other hand, has a 0-1 record with an ERA of 4.70. His xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may struggle in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Dodgers have been impressive, ranking as the 4th best in MLB. They excel in home runs, ranking 2nd in the league in this category. However, their stolen base ranking is lower, sitting at 20th. The Mets' offense has been solid as well, ranking 11th in MLB. They have an average batting average ranking but perform well in home runs.

The Dodgers have a strong bullpen, ranking 4th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Mets' bullpen ranks 21st, indicating a potential advantage for the Dodgers in the late innings.

The betting odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 67%. The Mets are considered underdogs, with a moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%. Based on the current odds, the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 5.37 runs, while the Mets have a lower implied team total of 3.63 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Adrian Houser has relied on his secondary offerings 10.1% more often this season (39.3%) than he did last season (29.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Hitting the ball to all fields is a key ability for batting average that Francisco Lindor has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his ranking in the 20th percentile on THE BAT X's Spray Score.

• Hitters who are unable to spray the ball around the field tend to have weak bat control and are predictable for the opposing defense, making hits tougher to come by.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Tyler Glasnow's fastball spin rate of 2547 rpm is in the 97th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Max Muncy usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Adrian Houser.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 82 of their last 145 games (+21.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Tyler Glasnow has hit the Earned Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 41% ROI)

Mets vs Dodgers Prediction: Mets 4.19 - Dodgers 6.3

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