New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 6/5/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets on June 5, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 37-25 and the Mets at 39-23. This matchup is critical as it marks the fourth game of a tightly contested series, further intensifying the stakes.

Projected to start for the Dodgers is Landon Knack, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled to find his rhythm this season, holding a 3-2 record and a 4.58 ERA. The advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, but he still projects to pitch only 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs. In contrast, David Peterson, the Mets' left-handed starter, comes into this game with a solid 4-2 record and an excellent 2.69 ERA. Although Peterson projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, his underlying metrics indicate he might be due for a downturn.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 1st best lineup in MLB, leading the league in home runs with 100. This potent offense could pose challenges for Peterson, who relies on generating ground balls (58 GB%). Meanwhile, the Mets rank 6th in overall offense, but their recent performance has been less explosive compared to their season averages.

With the Dodgers favored at -140 and an implied team total of 5.07 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The game's total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring matchup. Given the Dodgers' elite offense and the Mets' shaky bullpen ranked 28th in MLB, this game could tilt in favor of Los Angeles if Knack can limit damage early.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (48.1% vs. 42.5% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Pete Alonso's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94-mph now compared to just 89.7-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Landon Knack's fastball spin rate of 2406 rpm is in the 80th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a unit rank 3rd- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+17.65 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.6, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.13

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.