New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 6/2/2025

On June 2, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams are performing well this season, sitting at 36-23 and 37-22, respectively. The Dodgers rank 1st in MLB in offense, boasting a remarkable ability to generate runs, while the Mets come in at 6th. This matchup has significant implications as both teams are looking to secure a favorable position in their divisions.

Dustin May is expected to take the mound for the Dodgers, having started 10 games this season with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.20. Despite the above-average ERA, his 3.45 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and has the potential for better performance moving forward. May's projection of 5.2 innings pitched, allowing 2.5 earned runs, indicates a solid but not overwhelming outing. Conversely, Paul Blackburn takes the hill for the Mets, projected to pitch 4.8 innings and allow 3.4 earned runs, along with a higher average of 5.6 hits allowed. Blackburn’s recent form has not been inspiring, placing him among the lowest-rated pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats.

With a Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, betting trends favor the Dodgers as they are the -160 favorites, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.95 runs for the game. Given the projections and the favorable team matchups, this game is shaping up to be an exciting encounter between two competitive teams.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Paul Blackburn will hold the advantage being matched up with 6 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brett Baty is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his previous game started, Dustin May was on point and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.65 Units / 43% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.20 Units / 63% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.98, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.27

• Date: June 2, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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