New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/4/2025

On June 4, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an electrifying matchup between two of the National League's top teams. The Dodgers, currently boasting a record of 37-24, are performing well this season, while the Mets lead slightly with a 38-23 record. In their last outing, the Dodgers delivered an extra-inning win over New York, which further cements their status as a powerhouse in the league.

Tony Gonsolin is slated to take the mound for the Dodgers, entering this matchup with a 3-1 record and a 5.23 ERA this season. Although he ranks #129 among MLB starting pitchers, his xFIP of 4.47 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky this year. Gonsolin's inability to control his pitches, reflected in his 11.1 BB% this season, may open opportunities for the Mets’ patient offense, which ranks 5th in drawing walks.

Griffin Canning, projected to start for the Mets, carries a 5-2 record with a stellar ERA of 3.23. However, his xFIP of 3.83 indicates he might be due for a regression. Canning’s high-groundball tendencies could benefit him against a powerful Dodgers lineup that leads the league with 99 home runs this season.

The Dodgers' offense ranks 1st overall, excelling in batting average and home runs, which gives them a significant advantage. With an implied team total of 5.12 runs, the projections suggest that Los Angeles will capitalize on their home-field advantage. As the stakes rise in this series, expect a thrilling faceoff that could have major implications for both teams' standings.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Pete Alonso has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last year to 18.9% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tony Gonsolin is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101.3-mph average to last season's 99-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.28, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.39

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers

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