New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/20/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Butto - Mets
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-130), Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
• Money Line: Mets +154, Dodgers -185
• Total (Over/Under): 9

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup scheduled for April 20, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, who currently hold a record of 12-9 this season, are having a good campaign so far. On the other hand, the Mets have a record of 10-8 and are also performing well.

The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has started three games this year. Stone holds a win-loss record of 1-1 with an ERA of 6.14, which is considered poor. However, his 3.72 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Stone is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and giving up 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

Opposing Stone on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Jose Butto for the Mets. Butto has started two games this year and boasts an impressive ERA of 0.75. However, his 2.90 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and may regress in future performances. Butto is projected to pitch an average of 4.4 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and surrendering 4.9 hits and 2.4 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Dodgers rank as the fourth-best team in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and power at the plate. They rank 12th in team batting average and an impressive second in team home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is relatively low at 20th. The Mets, on the other hand, sit at the 11th spot in MLB for overall offense, with a team batting average ranking of 24th. They excel in team home runs, ranking 11th, but have an average ranking of 15th in stolen bases.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Dodgers have the third-best bullpen in MLB, while the Mets have the 25th-ranked bullpen. This suggests that the Dodgers may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Both teams have their key hitters performing well recently. Over the last seven games, the Dodgers' Mookie Betts has been their standout player, recording 10 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base with a batting average of .435 and an OPS of .957. For the Mets, Pete Alonso has been their top hitter over the same period, notching 5 hits, 6 runs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .333 and an impressive OPS of 1.300.

With the Dodgers' strong offense, solid bullpen, and home-field advantage, they enter this game as the favorites. However, the Mets' pitching staff, led by the impressive Jose Butto, could provide a challenge. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching this exciting matchup between two competitive teams.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

D.J. Stewart has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starter, Gavin Stone has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Ranking in the 100th percentile, Shohei Ohtani has hit 55.1% of his balls in the air since the start of last season with a velocity of 100 mph or faster.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Mets vs Dodgers Prediction: Mets 4.44 - Dodgers 4.78

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.