Mets vs Dodgers Game 1 Betting Pick & Preview – 10/13/2024

• Date: October 13, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers

Mets vs Dodgers Game 1 Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets kick off their National League Championship Series on October 13, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, who boast the top offense in MLB this season, are favorites with a moneyline of -155, translating to a 59% implied win probability. The Mets, a solid team with the 9th-best offense, come in as underdogs with a +135 moneyline.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start right-hander Jack Flaherty, ranked 69th among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Flaherty has been effective this season, with a 3.17 ERA and a 13-7 record. However, projections indicate a potential struggle, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks. Nevertheless, Flaherty's ability to limit earned runs to 2.2 on average could be key against the Mets' lineup.

The Mets counter with right-hander Kodai Senga, ranked 40th among starting pitchers. Despite a stellar 1.77 xFIP suggesting he's been unlucky, Senga's projections for this matchup show him pitching just 1.7 innings. His high flyball rate (44%) could be problematic against the Dodgers' powerful lineup, which leads the league in home runs. However, his low walk rate (5.0%) could neutralize the Dodgers' patient approach at the plate.

Los Angeles' bullpen, ranked 5th, offers a significant edge over the Mets' 15th-ranked relief corps. With the Dodgers' offense excelling in both power and batting average, and the Mets also bringing solid home run capabilities, the game total is set at an average 8.0 runs. With the Dodgers' high implied team total of 4.39 runs, they look poised to leverage their home-field advantage in this series opener.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kodai Senga to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 50 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

New York's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.2% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+19.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 117 games (+21.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+28.50 Units / 356% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.4 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4

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