Mets vs Dodgers Game 1 Betting Pick & Preview – 10/13/2024
Updated October 29, 2026
Updated October 29, 2026
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers open the 2024 National League Championship Series on Sunday, October 13, at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles enters as the favorite after finishing the regular season with baseball's most productive offense, while New York looks to continue its impressive postseason run.
The starting pitching matchup features Kodai Senga for the Mets and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers. Senga's limited workload is a major consideration, particularly against a powerful Los Angeles lineup. Flaherty brings a more established workload into the series opener, supported by one of the stronger bullpens in baseball.
Our original ATS.io projections give the Dodgers a 62.31% chance of winning, with a projected final score of Los Angeles 5.4, New York 4.4.
Game details | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers |
Date | Sunday, October 13, 2024 |
Competition | National League Championship Series, Game 1 |
Venue | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles |
First pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (RHP) |
Dodgers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (RHP) |
Original projected winner | Los Angeles Dodgers |
Projected score | Dodgers 5.4, Mets 4.4 |
The Dodgers have home-field advantage to begin the best-of-seven series. Both teams have dangerous offenses, but the pitching matchup and bullpen depth give Los Angeles an important advantage.
The original pregame odds favored Los Angeles on the moneyline, with the total set at eight runs.
Betting market | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +135 | -160 |
Run line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
Over/Under | Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) |
These are the historical betting lines included in the original October 13, 2024 preview.
At -160, the Dodgers were clear favorites, although the Mets offered a positive-money return for an upset victory.
The 1.5-run spread gave bettors an alternative to the moneyline. Los Angeles needed to win by at least two runs to cover -1.5, while New York could cover +1.5 by winning outright or losing by exactly one run.
The eight-run total reflected the offensive capabilities of both teams, balanced against their pitching staffs and the importance of postseason run prevention.
ATS.io's original model projected Los Angeles as the more likely winner.
Team | Implied win probability | ATS.io projected win probability |
|---|---|---|
New York Mets | 41% | 37.69% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 59% | 62.31% |
The projected probabilities favor the Dodgers by 24.62 percentage points.
Implied win probability represents the likelihood of an outcome reflected in betting odds. Sportsbooks incorporate their margin into prices, so the implied probabilities of both teams can total more than 100% before adjustment.
ATS.io's projected win probability is a separate model estimate based on factors such as team performance, pitching, offensive production and matchup conditions.
The original article listed a 59% implied probability for Los Angeles and 41% for New York. Those figures are retained here as published.
The model's 62.31% projection suggests the Dodgers have a slightly stronger chance than the original implied probability indicates.
However, the difference between a projection and a betting price needs to be evaluated carefully before identifying a potential wager.
For more information about betting markets, visit our sportsbook reviews.
Los Angeles enters the NLCS with the strongest offense in MLB according to the original matchup analysis.
The Dodgers combine power, batting average and lineup depth, making them particularly dangerous against a starter with limited availability.
New York also has a capable offense, ranked ninth in the original analysis, with enough home run potential to challenge Flaherty.
The key difference may come on the mound.
Senga is expected to work only a short outing, while Flaherty has the opportunity to pitch considerably deeper into the game.
That creates a potentially significant advantage for the Dodgers, especially considering their stronger bullpen ranking.
Kodai Senga starts Game 1 for New York after an injury-disrupted season.
The original THE BAT X analysis ranks Senga 40th among starting pitchers and projects him to throw approximately 1.7 innings.
A pitch count of roughly 50 pitches is expected.
That limitation could force the Mets to rely on their bullpen early, placing additional pressure on the relief staff.
The matchup is especially demanding because Los Angeles has one of the most powerful lineups in baseball.
Senga's 44% flyball rate is a potential concern against a Dodgers offense that leads the league in home runs.
Flyballs can be particularly dangerous against hitters capable of generating consistent hard contact.
However, Senga's underlying numbers also provide reasons for optimism.
The original analysis cites a 1.77 xFIP, suggesting strong underlying pitching performance despite his limited season.
His 5.0% walk rate is another positive indicator.
Limiting free passes is important against a Dodgers lineup that can turn a single baserunner into a multi-run inning.
The biggest question is how effectively Senga can pitch within his expected workload.
If he exits early, New York will need several relievers to handle a substantial portion of the game.
Jack Flaherty starts Game 1 for Los Angeles.
The right-hander enters with a 13-7 record and a 3.17 ERA, providing the Dodgers with an experienced starting option.
The original THE BAT X analysis ranks Flaherty 69th among starting pitchers.
His matchup projection includes:
Projected statistic | Jack Flaherty |
|---|---|
Innings pitched | 4.9 |
Hits allowed | 4.4 |
Walks allowed | 1.4 |
Earned runs allowed | 2.2 |
Flaherty's ability to limit walks and manage contact could be important against a Mets lineup with legitimate power.
The right-hander also benefits from the platoon advantage against six opposing hitters, according to the original matchup data.
Pitchers generally perform better against same-handed hitters, making that an encouraging matchup characteristic.
Flaherty does not necessarily need to dominate for Los Angeles to win.
A solid outing that keeps the game competitive would give the Dodgers an opportunity to use their bullpen and offensive depth.
The Dodgers' lineup is the strongest part of their matchup profile.
Los Angeles led MLB in offensive production according to the original analysis and also ranked first in home runs.
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman provide elite offensive talent, while hitters such as Teoscar Hernández and Max Muncy add power throughout the lineup.
That depth makes it difficult for opposing pitchers to work through the order without encountering dangerous hitters.
Senga's limited pitch count could make the challenge even greater.
Once he exits, the Mets may need multiple relievers to handle the Dodgers' strongest hitters.
The original analysis assigns Los Angeles an implied team total of 4.39 runs.
ATS.io's projected score is even higher at 5.4 runs.
The Mets enter Game 1 with the ninth-ranked offense in the original matchup analysis.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are central to New York's offensive potential, while Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos add further depth.
The Mets have enough power to punish mistakes and generate runs quickly.
However, Flaherty's platoon advantage against six hitters creates a challenge.
New York may need to manufacture scoring opportunities through disciplined at-bats and timely hitting rather than relying exclusively on home runs.
The Dodgers' strong bullpen also reduces the margin for error late in games.
If New York falls behind early, overcoming that deficit could be difficult.
Category | Kodai Senga | Jack Flaherty |
|---|---|---|
Team | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
Throws | Right | Right |
THE BAT X ranking | 40th | 69th |
Projected innings | 1.7 | 4.9 |
Notable metric | 1.77 xFIP | 3.17 ERA |
Main concern | Limited pitch count | Mets' offensive power |
Main advantage | Low walk rate | Platoon advantage against six hitters |
Senga's underlying pitching metrics are encouraging, but his workload restriction changes the matchup significantly.
Flaherty is expected to provide a longer outing, reducing the amount of work required from the Dodgers' bullpen.
The contrast becomes even more important when considering the teams' relief pitching rankings.
The original matchup analysis ranks the Dodgers' bullpen fifth in MLB and the Mets' bullpen 15th.
Team | Original bullpen ranking |
|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 5th |
New York Mets | 15th |
That difference favors Los Angeles, especially with Senga expected to make a short start.
The Mets could need seven or more innings from their bullpen, depending on how quickly Senga reaches his pitch limit.
Against the Dodgers' lineup, that creates numerous opportunities for Los Angeles to generate scoring chances.
Flaherty's projected 4.9 innings also suggest bullpen involvement for Los Angeles, but the Dodgers enter with the stronger relief unit according to the original rankings.
For New York, effective bullpen management may be one of the biggest factors in keeping Game 1 competitive.
The original THE BAT X analysis identified several individual matchup factors worth examining.
Senga is projected to throw a maximum of approximately 50 pitches.
That could significantly reduce his innings, outs and strikeout totals.
A restricted workload is especially important when evaluating starting pitcher props.
Even an effective pitcher may struggle to reach a strikeout line if he is removed after only a few innings.
Flaherty is projected to have the platoon advantage against six Mets hitters.
Same-handed matchups generally favor the pitcher, potentially improving his ability to limit offensive production.
This advantage supports the Dodgers' overall pitching outlook.
The original analysis identifies the Mets as having the top-ranked outfield defense on the slate.
That creates a challenging matchup for Max Muncy, who frequently hits flyballs.
Strong outfield defense can turn well-hit balls into outs and reduce a hitter's chances of collecting extra-base hits.
Muncy also faces a ballpark-related challenge.
According to the original analysis, Dodger Stadium has the eighth-deepest right-field fences in the league.
Muncy pulls 38.2% of his flyballs, placing him in the 96th percentile for that tendency.
That combination could reduce the likelihood of some pulled flyballs clearing the fence.
However, Muncy's power still makes him a threat, and ballpark dimensions are only one factor in evaluating a home run prop.
The original preview highlighted three historical betting trends.
Trend | Original record | Profit / ROI |
|---|---|---|
Dodgers Game Total Over | 40 of last 64 games | +19.10 units / 27% ROI |
Mets Moneyline | 72 of last 117 games | +21.05 units / 14% ROI |
Enrique Hernández Home Runs Over | 4 of last 8 games | +28.50 units / 356% ROI |
These are the trends recorded before the October 13, 2024 game.
Los Angeles had hit the game total Over in 40 of its previous 64 games.
That reflects the team's offensive strength and ability to contribute heavily to combined scoring totals.
However, postseason pitching and bullpen usage can produce different scoring patterns than the regular season.
New York had won 72 of its previous 117 games for a positive return on moneyline wagers.
The Mets' ability to win as underdogs is relevant, particularly given their +135 price.
However, their overall record does not eliminate the matchup disadvantages created by Senga's expected workload.
Enrique Hernández had gone Over his home run prop in four of his previous eight games.
That was an unusually profitable short-term trend.
Still, home runs are relatively infrequent events, and a small sample can produce substantial swings in returns.
Individual matchup factors, expected plate appearances and market pricing should be considered before relying on such a trend.
ATS.io Projected Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4, New York Mets 4.4
Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction metric | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
Projected runs | 4.4 | 5.4 |
Win probability | 37.69% | 62.31% |
Original moneyline | +135 | -160 |
The Dodgers enter with several advantages.
Their offense ranks first in the original analysis, their bullpen ranks fifth, and Flaherty is projected to work considerably deeper into the game than Senga.
The Mets have enough offensive talent to remain competitive, but their expected reliance on relief pitching creates additional risk.
The original model projects Los Angeles to score one more run than New York.
That makes the Dodgers the projected winner, although a one-run margin does not provide a strong case for backing Los Angeles -1.5 based on the projected score alone.
The model also projects 9.8 combined runs, compared with a posted total of eight.
That difference is worth examining, but the original article did not explicitly designate an Over wager as its best bet.
→ Our Take: Los Angeles has the stronger overall matchup profile, particularly on offense and in the bullpen. Senga's projected pitch restriction is a major concern for New York. Our original model favors the Dodgers with a 62.31% win probability and a projected 5.4-4.4 score.
Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 9, New York Mets 0
Los Angeles opened the National League Championship Series with a dominant shutout victory at Dodger Stadium.
Jack Flaherty delivered seven scoreless innings, while the Dodgers' offense took advantage of Kodai Senga's difficult start.
The result gave Los Angeles a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.
Team | Runs | Hits | Errors |
|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | X |
The Dodgers scored twice in the first inning, added another run in the second and extended their lead to 6-0 by the end of the fourth.
Three additional runs in the eighth completed the rout.
Flaherty was outstanding in the series opener.
Statistic | Jack Flaherty |
|---|---|
Innings pitched | 7.0 |
Hits allowed | 2 |
Earned runs | 0 |
Walks | 2 |
Strikeouts | 6 |
Pitches | 98 |
Flaherty exceeded the original 4.9-inning projection by more than two innings.
He limited New York to two hits and kept the Mets scoreless throughout his outing.
Daniel Hudson and Ben Casparius completed the shutout, with Los Angeles allowing just three hits in the game.
The Dodgers also tied a postseason record with 33 consecutive scoreless innings.
Senga's limited workload was one of the biggest concerns in the original preview.
He lasted just 1⅓ innings.
Statistic | Kodai Senga |
|---|---|
Innings pitched | 1⅓ |
Hits allowed | 2 |
Earned runs | 3 |
Walks | 4 |
Strikeouts | 0 |
Pitches | 30 |
Senga struggled with command immediately, throwing just 10 strikes among his 30 pitches.
He walked four hitters and allowed three earned runs before leaving the game.
His early exit forced New York into extensive bullpen usage, exactly the type of situation identified as a potential concern in the pregame analysis.
Several Los Angeles hitters contributed to the victory.
Max Muncy opened the scoring with a two-run single in the first inning.
Shohei Ohtani added two hits and an RBI, while Freddie Freeman also collected two hits.
Mookie Betts delivered a bases-clearing double in the eighth inning, driving in three runs and extending the Dodgers' lead to 9-0.
Los Angeles scored nine runs despite hitting no home runs.
The original betting lines and the actual game result produced the following outcomes.
Market | Historical odds | Result |
|---|---|---|
Dodgers moneyline | -160 | Won |
Mets moneyline | +135 | Lost |
Dodgers -1.5 | +135 | Won |
Mets +1.5 | -155 | Lost |
Over 8 | -110 | Won |
Under 8 | -110 | Lost |
Los Angeles won by nine runs, comfortably covering the -1.5 run line.
The teams combined for nine runs, sending the game Over the posted total of eight.
Metric | Original projection | Actual result |
|---|---|---|
Winning team | Dodgers | Dodgers |
Mets runs | 4.4 | 0 |
Dodgers runs | 5.4 | 9 |
Combined runs | 9.8 | 9 |
Winning margin | Dodgers by 1.0 | Dodgers by 9 |
The model correctly identified Los Angeles as the more likely winner.
Its combined run projection was also reasonably close to the actual total, although the distribution of runs was very different.
The biggest discrepancy was New York's offense, which failed to score against Flaherty and the Dodgers' bullpen.
The original article did not name a specific moneyline, run-line or totals wager as an official best bet, so the winning market outcomes should not be recorded as confirmed ATS.io betting selections.
The original preview anticipated a relatively short outing for Senga and a more substantial workload for Flaherty.
That difference proved decisive.
Senga lasted only 1⅓ innings, while Flaherty pitched seven scoreless frames.
Los Angeles received an outstanding starting performance, while New York needed its bullpen almost immediately.
The Dodgers generated nine runs without a home run.
Their scoring came through timely hitting, walks and sustained offensive pressure.
That demonstrated the lineup's ability to produce runs without relying entirely on power.
The Mets were held to three hits and never established meaningful offensive momentum.
Their inability to score meant that even a significantly better pitching performance would have been necessary to compete.
Los Angeles used the victory to establish an early advantage in the NLCS.
The Dodgers eventually won the series in six games, advancing to the World Series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Mets 9-0 at Dodger Stadium.
Kodai Senga started for the Mets, while Jack Flaherty started for the Dodgers.
The original ATS.io preview listed the Mets at +135 and the Dodgers at -160.
The original total was eight runs, with both the Over and Under priced at -110.
Yes. Los Angeles won 9-0, comfortably covering the -1.5 run line.
The game finished Over eight runs, with nine total runs scored.
The original model projected the Dodgers to win 5.4-4.4, with a 62.31% probability of a Los Angeles victory.
Yes. The Dodgers won 9-0.
The supplied original article contained a projected final score and win probabilities but did not explicitly identify an official betting selection.
Flaherty pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out six.
Senga lasted 1⅓ innings, allowing three earned runs and four walks.
Mookie Betts drove in three runs, including a bases-clearing double in the eighth inning.
The Dodgers defeated the Mets in six games, winning the series 4-2.
The original matchup analysis correctly identified Los Angeles as the stronger side entering Game 1.
The Dodgers held advantages in offensive production, bullpen depth and projected starting pitcher workload.
Those factors were evident in the final result.
Jack Flaherty exceeded expectations with seven scoreless innings, while Kodai Senga struggled with his command and exited in the second inning.
Los Angeles capitalized on the opportunity and secured a convincing 9-0 victory.
→ Our Take: The original ATS.io model correctly favored the Dodgers, projecting a 62.31% win probability. Los Angeles won by a much wider margin than expected, with Flaherty's dominant performance and Senga's early exit shaping the outcome. The pregame analysis identified the key matchup advantages, even though the projected score underestimated how one-sided Game 1 would become.
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