New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 8/8/2024

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On August 8, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Mets at Coors Field for the third game in their series. The Rockies, with a disappointing record of 42-73 this season, are struggling and have been eliminated from contention in the National League West. In contrast, the Mets are enjoying a solid season at 60-54 and currently stand in a competitive position in the Wild Card race.

In their last game, the Rockies faced the Mets, but the outcome was not in their favor, adding to their woes as they continue to grapple with a lackluster year. The Rockies' offense ranks 17th overall in MLB, and while they do hit home runs well, their overall production has been inconsistent. Brendan Rodgers has been their best hitter over the past week, boasting a .421 batting average and a 1.239 OPS.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber, who has had a rough season with a 3-7 record and a 4.66 ERA. Gomber has struggled with consistency, projecting to allow an average of 3.5 earned runs and 6.3 hits today. This puts him at a disadvantage against a Mets lineup that ranks 9th in MLB, particularly given David Peterson's strong performance. Peterson, despite being a below-average pitcher overall, has a solid 3.47 ERA and has been effective in his recent outings.

The projections suggest that Colorado will struggle to match the Mets' offensive firepower, which is bolstered by their 4th-best ranking in home runs this season. With a high Game Total set at 11.0 runs, bettors may lean towards the Mets as they aim to capitalize on Colorado's pitching challenges.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's sinker usage has spiked by 6.8% from last season to this one (24.6% to 31.4%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brandon Nimmo is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game since none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Kris Bryant are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 6.46 vs Colorado Rockies 5.57

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