New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 8/6/2024

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Mets at Coors Field for the first game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a record of 41-72, while the Mets have found themselves in a better position at 59-53. Despite their challenges, the Rockies' offense ranks 16th in MLB, showing some underlying talent, particularly with their ability to hit home runs, where they rank 10th. However, they face a tough matchup against the Mets, who boast the 8th best offense in the league and rank 4th in home runs.

The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 3-4 record and an ERA of 5.64. While Freeland's xFIP of 4.19 suggests he might have been unlucky, his projections for today are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing around 3.9 earned runs. In contrast, the Mets will counter with Luis Severino, who has a solid ERA of 3.93 and is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, although he has also shown some signs of luck with his 4.55 SIERA.

The Rockies' Brendan Rodgers has been their best hitter recently, batting .350 with a 1.000 OPS over the past week, while the Mets' Jeff McNeil has also been impressive, hitting .375 with a 1.099 OPS. Given the Rockies' struggles and the Mets' stronger overall play, the projections suggest that Colorado may find it difficult to secure a win in this matchup, despite their high implied team total of 4.95 runs. With the Mets favored at -160, this game promises to be a significant test for the Rockies as they look to turn their season around.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Iglesias is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Mets have been the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 8 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Kyle Freeland has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 games at home (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 6.99 vs Colorado Rockies 5.88

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.