New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 5/22/2024

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Mets in an exciting interleague matchup at Progressive Field on May 22, 2024. The Guardians have been having a great season with a record of 32-17, while the Mets have struggled with a record of 21-27.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Triston McKenzie, who has been solid this season with a 2-3 record and an impressive 3.23 ERA. However, his 5.10 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. McKenzie is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and surrendering 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks per game.

Opposing McKenzie will be left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a 5.21 ERA. However, his 4.56 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Quintana is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, striking out 3.7 batters, and giving up 6.2 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

The Guardians offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, displaying average talent overall. They excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league, but struggle with home runs, ranking last. On the other hand, the Mets offense has struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB. They have a below-average team batting average, but rank 11th in home runs.

In terms of the bullpen, the Guardians have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets have the 19th best. This could give the Guardians an advantage in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Guardians are favored to win with a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Mets, with a moneyline set at +110, have a 46% chance of winning according to the betting markets. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but the Guardians' strong record, solid pitching performance from McKenzie, and superior bullpen could give them the edge in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all SPs, Jose Quintana's fastball velocity of 89.5 mph is in the 4th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Starling Marte are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Triston McKenzie.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in the majors: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Triston McKenzie (40.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in New York's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 17 games at home (+30.70 Units / 181% ROI)

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.59 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.86

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