New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 9/7/2025
The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds will meet to close out a three-game series on Sunday. These teams have split the first two games of this series and both teams will look for a huge win for their Wild Card hopes in this rubber match. Here, I break down this matchup from all angles and give you my Mets vs Reds prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Mets vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Reds Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Teams: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Sproat vs Hunter Greene
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
- The Mets are going with a new starting pitcher with Kodai Senga being optioned down to the minors. We will get our first look at Brandon Sproat in this game.
- The Mets come into this matchup in the third NL Wild Card spot and they will try to increase their lead over the Reds and the rest of the teams trying to catch them here.
Pitching outlook
- Brandon Sproat has never pitched in a MLB game before. This will be his first chance to prove himself on this stage. It will be very interesting to see how he performs in a high-pressure situation like this one for a team in a playoff race.
- Hunter Greene owns a 2.70 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. He has triple-digit heat and a wipeout slider. He has piled up 101 strikeouts in 83.1 innings. He is a big reason the Reds are favored in this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have lost two of their last three games going into this contest.
- Cincinnati had a three-game losing streak snapped with Saturday’s win.
Best Player Props
| Player | Recommended Play |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | To hit a home run |
| Elly De La Cruz | To hit a home run |
| Hunter Greene | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cincinnati has a 3-2 lead in the season series against the Mets this year.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between these two clubs.
- New York has a losing record on the road at 31-39. They have done most of their damage at home this season.
- Cincinnati is 39-34 on their home field in 2025.
Mets vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 5 – Mets 4
Win Probability: New York 48%, Cincinnati 52%
Final Thoughts
The New York Mets might be the better team overall heading into this matchup. But the Reds are in a better position to win this particular game. Sproat could have some growing pains on the mound for New York here and the Reds have been strong at home for the most part in 2025. All of that should add up to a win for Cincinnati to close out this series.
