New York Mets VS Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
• Run Line: Mets 1.5 -200, Reds -1.5 170
• Money Line: Mets -110, Reds -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 50%
• Cincinnati Reds - 50%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 52.58%
• Cincinnati Reds - 47.42%

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

On April 7, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park in a National League matchup. The Reds have been having a great season with a record of 5-3, while the Mets have struggled with a record of 2-6.

The Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his only start this year, Abbott pitched well, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 2 walks. However, his 5.20 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Mets will counter with left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who has been above average according to our Power Rankings. In his last start, Manaea pitched a gem, going 6 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 8, and giving up only 1 hit and 2 walks. However, his 3.41 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in his performance going forward.

The Reds have been bolstered by their strong offense, ranking as the best in MLB. Their best hitter this season has been Spencer Steer, who has recorded impressive numbers with a 0.448 batting average, 3 home runs, and 12 RBIs. Over the last week, Steer has continued to shine with a 0.500 batting average and a 1.622 OPS.

On the contrary, the Mets have struggled offensively, ranking as the 25th best team in MLB. Starling Marte has been their best hitter, contributing 5 runs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases. However, the Mets offense has room for improvement, as they have a below-average team batting average and rank 11th in home runs.

Both teams have concerns in their bullpens, with the Reds ranking 22nd and the Mets ranking 26th according to our Power Rankings. This could potentially impact the outcome of the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mets have a slight edge with a 53% win probability, while the Reds have a 47% chance of winning. However, the current odds and moneylines suggest that this will be a close game with a 50% implied win probability for both teams.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 9th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson, Luke Maile, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 116 games (+17.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 114 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.79 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.28

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