New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the New York Mets on August 30, 2024, they find themselves in a tough spot, sitting at an abysmal 31-104 record this season. The Mets, on the other hand, are enjoying a solid campaign with a 70-64 record. This series opener at Guaranteed Rate Field promises an intriguing matchup, especially considering the White Sox's recent struggles, including a stretch of poor offensive performances.

Chicago will send out Jonathan Cannon, who has had a rocky year as indicated by his Power Rankings placement as the 274th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a Win/Loss record of 2-8 and an ERA of 4.57, Cannon projects to pitch approximately 5.1 innings while allowing around 3.0 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Mets lineup. The White Sox boast the 30th ranked offense in the league, struggling to generate consistent scoring. They rank 29th in batting average and 28th in home runs, which presents a daunting challenge when facing a pitcher like Tylor Megill.

Megill, while also considered below average, has shown signs of potential with a 4.23 xFIP, indicating he might be due for some positive regression. He has a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and an ERA of 5.17, but he projects to allow a manageable 2.5 earned runs over 5.2 innings. The projections suggest that the Mets could score around 5.53 runs, taking advantage of their 11th ranked offense that ranks among the best in home runs this season.

With the Mets favored heavily as they chase postseason aspirations, and the White Sox struggling to find their footing, this game seems poised for an exciting clash. The betting lines reflect this disparity, but the projections offer a glimmer of hope for those considering the White Sox as underdogs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Recording 15 outs per game per started this year on average, Tylor Megill places in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Despite posting a .368 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has had positive variance on his side given the .053 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 5th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jonathan Cannon must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot this year: 61% of the time, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 81 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 34% ROI)

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.62 vs Chicago White Sox 4.25

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.