New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the New York Mets on August 31, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging position. The White Sox are struggling mightily this season with a dismal record of 31-105, ranking 30th in offensive production. Meanwhile, the Mets boast a more respectable 71-64 record and are currently 11th in MLB in offensive efficiency. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the White Sox will need to regroup after a rough outing in their last game.

Davis Martin, projected to start for the White Sox, has shown a mix of potential and misfortune. Despite his excellent ERA of 2.96 over five starts, advanced metrics indicate he may have benefited from luck, as his 4.36 xFIP suggests regression could be on the horizon. Martin's challenge will be to contain a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs with 132 blasts this season. However, his groundball rate of 50% could help mitigate some of the Mets' power if they struggle to elevate the ball.

On the other side, Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Mets. With a record of 6-9 and an average ERA of 4.36, Quintana also carries concerns, as projections indicate he may not sustain his current performance level. Despite this, he has the potential to go deep into the game, with an average projection of 5.3 innings.

With the Mets holding a high implied team total of 5.25 runs, they are favored to win this matchup against a struggling White Sox squad that has a low implied total of 3.75 runs. Given the statistics and the current form of both teams, this game presents a significant opportunity for the Mets to capitalize on the White Sox’s vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Davis Martin is projected to throw 85 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 16th-most of the day.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Andrew Benintendi is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 79 games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 54% ROI)

New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.74 vs Chicago White Sox 4.79

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.