New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 5/19/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Mets on May 19, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams come into the series with contrasting fortunes. The Red Sox, at 23-25, are struggling this season, while the Mets boast a strong 29-18 record, showcasing their competitive edge. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding an extra layer of excitement to the contest.

On the pitching front, Boston is set to start Hunter Dobbins, who has a so-so 2-1 record and a decent ERA of 3.90. However, the advanced projections suggest that he may struggle today, as he is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, which is below average. Conversely, the Mets will rely on the talented Kodai Senga, who has been outstanding with a 4-2 record and a remarkable ERA of 1.22. Although his xFIP indicates he might have been lucky so far, Senga’s projections are still solid, with an average of 5.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 7th in MLB, showing their ability to put runs on the board, while the Mets are close behind at 6th. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might see this as an opportunity for a high-scoring affair. Despite being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, Boston's powerful offense, combined with their strong home-field advantage, could make this matchup closer than expected, especially against a Mets bullpen ranked 28th in MLB. This game could be a pivotal moment for the Red Sox to turn their season around.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Kodai Senga was rolling in his previous game started and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Dobbins to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Boston Red Sox (24.5% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.89 Units / 14% ROI)
• Hunter Dobbins has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 43% ROI)

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.08, Boston Red Sox 4.7

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox

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