New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the New York Mets at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Red Sox enter the game with a .500 record of 25-25, showcasing an average season thus far. In contrast, the Mets are thriving with a record of 29-20, reflecting a great season. Last night, the Red Sox defeated the Mets, adding momentum as they look to secure another win.

The matchup on the mound features Garrett Crochet for Boston and Tylor Megill for New York. Crochet, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 8th best in MLB according to advanced stats, has been impressive this year with a 4-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.00. However, his 3.01 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune, indicating a potential regression. On the flip side, Megill, with a record of 3-4 and a solid ERA of 3.74, is deemed a good pitcher. His 0.61 point difference between ERA and FIP hints at an unlucky season so far, indicating room for improvement.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB and are particularly strong in home runs, while also boasting the 5th best performance in stolen bases. The Mets, though ranking 9th overall, sit lower in home runs and stolen bases at 12th and 17th, respectively. Additionally, the Red Sox bullpen ranks 10th, markedly superior to the Mets' 27th ranking.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and the Red Sox favored at -150, the projections indicate they should be able to capitalize on their opportunities, especially given their overall offensive prowess against Megill's strikeout-heavy approach. The Red Sox's implied team total stands at a healthy 4.33 runs, painting a promising picture for their bats today.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Tylor Megill (33.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Alonso has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet has gone to his four-seamer 10.5% less often this season (43.2%) than he did last season (53.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tylor Megill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.40 Units / 63% ROI)

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 3.8, Boston Red Sox 4.37

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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