New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 7/8/2025

When you think of matchups between New York and Baltimore in baseball, you typically think about the Yankees and Orioles. But it will be the Mets and Orioles facing off to open a three-game series on Tuesday, July 8 at Camden Yards. Here, I break down this interleague game and make my Mets vs Orioles prediction from Baltimore.

Our Mets vs Orioles Pick

• Pick: Mets moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 6:35 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes (Mets) vs Brandon Young (Orioles)
• Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Broadcast: MASN (Orioles) & SNY (Mets)

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Clay Holmes brings an 8-4 record and 2.99 ERA into this start. He has held opponents to two runs or less in four of his last five starts. Baltimore’s Brandon Young has struggled this season. He is 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA. He has yet to pitch five full innings in his four starts in 2025.
• Bullpen usage: The Orioles have struggled with their bullpen this season. They rank 25th in the league in bullpen ERA. The Mets are 13th in that category and have a huge advantage in the battle of the bullpens here.
• Recent team streaks: The Mets have won four of five, winning two of three against the Yankees in their last series. The Orioles swept Atlanta and are on a three-game winning streak.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first game of the season series between these teams. This three-game set is the only series they will play this year.
• Baltimore is 39-50 on the runline this year, ranking 27th in runline win percentage.
• Both teams have gone under the total in at least 53% of their games in 2025.
• The Mets are 19-25 on the road, and the Orioles are 19-22 at home.

Mets vs Orioles Model Projection

Score Projection: Mets 6 – Orioles 5

Win Probability: Mets 52%, Orioles 48%

Final Thoughts

My model shows that the Mets are set to win this game in Baltimore. Their starting pitching and relief pitching are both superior than that of the Orioles. I expect a strong start from Holmes once again and for New York’s National League team to put an end to the three-game winning streak of the Orioles in a game that goes over the total.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.