New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Game 1 Pick – 7/10/2025

The New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles will play a doubleheader on Thursday. Game 1 of that twin bill is set for 12:05 PM ET. The Mets will look to keep winning on the road to help their playoff chances today. But Baltimore is still aiming to turn around its season and has plenty of talent for the Mets to look out for. Continue reading to get my Mets vs Orioles Game 1 prediction for Thursday afternoon.

Our Mets vs Orioles Game 1 Pick

  • The Pick: Mets Moneyline (–138)
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
  • Date & Time: Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 12:05 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (NYM) vs Charlie Morton (BAL)
  • Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Broadcast: MLB Network, MASN, SNY

Key Storylines

Pitching form

David Peterson has delivered a solid season to this point. He has recorded a 6–4 mark with a 3.18 ERA. Peterson has been great at keeping the ball in the park this year. He has allowed just seven home runs for the season. Charlie Morton has struggled at times this year. He has a 5.47 ERA. He did win his last outing and will look to build on that.

Bullpen usage

These teams played an extra-inning game in their series opener. But bullpen usage shouldn’t be much of a concern after both teams had the day off due to the weather on Wednesday.

Recent team streaks

The Mets have won four of their past five games after winning the opening game of this series. The Orioles have won three of four but dropped Tuesday’s extra-inning game against the Mets.

Best Player Props

PlayerProp
Juan SotoOver 1.5 total bases
Pete AlonsoHome run
David PetersonOver 5.5 strikeouts
  • Mets are 20–25 on the road this season.
  • Orioles are 19–23 at home.
  • New York won the first game of the season series between these teams on Tuesday.
  • Baltimore is 40-50 both straight up and on the runline this year. The Mets are 46-46 on the runline in 2025.

Mets vs Orioles Game 1 Model Projection

Score Projection: Mets 6 – Orioles 4

Win Probability: Mets 56%, Orioles 44% (via money line odds).

Final Thoughts

David Peterson has been rock solid for the Mets this season. I think he gives New York a solid advantage over Charlie Morton in the starting pitching matchup. Expect that to help the Mets take an early lead in this game and for them to never look back. Take the Mets on the moneyline, as they should win a second straight game against the Orioles in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader.


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Home MLB Picks New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Game 1 Pick – 7/10/2025