New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 6/19/2025

On June 19, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the New York Mets at Truist Park in what promises to be an exciting National League East showdown. Both teams are vying for positioning, with the Mets sitting comfortably at 45-29, showcasing an impressive season, while the Braves are struggling at 33-39. The Braves have won two straight over the Mets, though, and will look for a third win in a row here.

The matchup features Spencer Strider, the Braves' projected starter, and Clay Holmes for the Mets. Strider, ranked 19th best among starting pitchers and known for his ability to generate strikeouts (7.1 projected today), has faced challenges this season, holding a 1-5 record with a 4.35 ERA. His solid 3.48 SIERA suggests he’s been unlucky and could improve. However, he’s a high-flyball pitcher (45 FB%) facing a powerful Mets offense that has belted 93 home runs this year—the 6th most in MLB.

On the other side, Clay Holmes enters with a strong 7-3 record and an excellent 2.87 ERA, though his 3.68 xFIP indicates he may be due for regression. With a strikeout projection of just 4.3, he may struggle against the Braves' lineup, which ranks 16th overall.

Betting lines reflect the competitive nature of this matchup, with Atlanta favored to prevail with an implied total of 4.45 runs. The Braves need to capitalize on Holmes’s weaknesses, especially considering the projected average of 2.6 earned runs they could impose today. As both teams move forward in their seasons, this clash could prove pivotal for Atlanta's hopes of turning their campaign around.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.82 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.46, Atlanta Braves 4.85

• Date: June 19, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clay Holmes - Mets
  • Spencer Strider - Braves

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