New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the New York Mets at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves, sitting at 32-39, are having a below-average season and are looking to turn things around against a Mets team that boasts a strong 45-28 record. In their last game, the Braves came out on top, and will look to do so again in this National League East rivalry game.

The Braves will send Chris Sale to the mound, who is currently ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid ERA of 2.79 over 14 starts and an average projection of 5.8 innings pitched, Sale is expected to perform well. However, he has shown some inconsistency, allowing an average of 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks per game, which could open the door for the powerful Mets offense.

Paul Blackburn, projected to start for the Mets, has struggled this season, with an ERA of 6.75 and a poor ranking among pitchers. Although his xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck, his projections for 4.3 innings and 2.9 earned runs allowed do not inspire confidence. The Braves offense, while averaging in the middle of the pack at 16th overall, will need to capitalize on this matchup, especially considering they rank 26th in stolen bases.

The betting odds favor the Braves with a moneyline of -180, indicating a solid chance for them to win, especially with their elite pitcher on the mound. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting a balance between both teams' offensive capabilities. With the Braves looking to bounce back and the Mets aiming to maintain their momentum, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle in the National League East.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Paul Blackburn must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 68.1% of the time, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Pete Alonso has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale was on point in his previous GS and compiled 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Hitters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Blackburn who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Atlanta's 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+7.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 111% ROI)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 4.48, Atlanta Braves 5.52

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets
  • Chris Sale - Braves

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